Publications
The Cost of Ignoring Geopolitics
Like Napoleon and the Ming dynasty, Europe is paying the price for strategic blindness. Europe finds itself in the greatest peril since the 1940s. As Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, the Trump administration’s policy shifts mean that Europe suddenly faces the possibility of war with Russia without the United States’ full backing. Washington is now negotiating a possible peace directly with Moscow and Kyiv, without the participation of other Europeans. It also seems willing to reach a deal largely on Russia’s terms. In this article, Jo Inge Bekkevold examines current geopolitical developments in Europe through a historical lens, highlighting both parallels and key differences with the past.
Europe’s New Role in U.S. Strategy
The future of U.S.-European relations is emerging as one of the most significant factors that will shape the global system. NATO’s celebration of its 75th anniversary at the bloc’s summit in Washington next week will be overshadowed not only by Russia’s war on Ukraine but by uncertainty over the future of the alliance itself—not least because of the possibility that NATO-bashing former U.S. President Donald Trump could return to power next year. The U.S.-European relationship will have several practical benefits for Washington’s rivalry with Beijing. In this op-ed, Jon Inge Bekkevold considers Europe's new role in U.S. strategy, the transatlantic relationship and U.S.-Chinese rivalry.
Critical Raw Materials: Interests of China and the European Union in the Arctic
In this Essay, we examine a potential avenue of future contestation in the Arctic – namely, the development of critical raw materials (CRMs) – with a particular focus on two actors with a growing interest in exploiting those materials in the Arctic region: China and the European Union (EU). CRMs increasingly play an essential role in the geopolitics of the global energy transition. In comes the Arctic region – a broad geographic area encompassing eight States that is rich in critical minerals, such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and REEs. However, mining in the Arctic poses significant risks, particularly to the region’s fragile ecosystem, and would require significant investments, often also involving public-private partnerships. And yet, as demand for critical minerals grows, the Arctic’s role in the global supply chain will likely become more prominent, particularly from a Chinese and EU perspective. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a watershed in relations between the West and the Russian Federation, including in the Arctic region. Once hailed as an exceptional space of regional governance, cooperation and peaceful co-existence between the Arctic States, that notion lost meaning over the past two – almost three – years.
The Identity Factor in Chinese Relations with Europe: China and the Barbarian Civilization
This book offers a sustained, historically grounded analysis of the identity factor in China-Europe relations. The identity of the modern Chinese state was forged in the context of European emissaries, gunboats, and books. The effects still shape China’s policies towards Europe today, as it becomes a focal point in the great power competition between the US and China. The author argues that identity dilemmas are central to Chinese Europe policies, both past and present. This is reflected in the two-pronged composition of the book; one historical section, combined and complemented with one contemporary section. Case studies of three key political flashpoints between the EU, individual European countries, and China over the last two decades, demonstrates the contemporary relevance of a set of identity issues whose deep roots are uncovered through analysing Chinese political texts from the preceding two centuries. Aimed primarily at scholars and students of Chinese and European international relations, this book will also be of interest to scholars of ontological security theory, constructivism, and other identity-driven approaches to international politics.
Store utfordringer, små steg: Europas vanskelige geoøkonomiske posisjon overfor Kina
Europeiske økonomiske og politiske strukturer innebærer et spesielt vanskelig utgangspunkt i en tidsalder hvor geopolitikk, og ønsket om å begrense økonomisk sårbarhet overfor Kina, i økende grad styrer handel og investeringer. Russlands fullskalainvasjon av Ukraina har tydeliggjort risikoen ved å være for økonomisk eksponert mot autoritære regimer, og bidratt til et signifikant skifte i europeisk Kina-politikk. Men ringvirkningene av invasjonen har samtidig gjort det vanskeligere å endre det økonomiske forholdet til Kina. Mens USA og Japan over de siste årene har lykkes i å redusere sin direkte økonomiske eksponering mot Kina, har dermed Europa innen en rekke nøkkelområder gått i motsatt retning. Dette geoøkonomiske problemkomplekset former Europas mulighetsrom overfor Beijing, og har også potensiale til å skape transatlantiske spenninger. En rekke viktige initiativ har nylig blitt igangsatt på EU-nivå for å bøte på situasjonen, men gitt det vanskelige utgangspunktet, er utfordringene store.
Konfliktspiral og stormaktsrivalisering i nordområdene
I dette kapitlet skriver Andreas Østhagen (FNI) om konfliktspiral og stormatsrivalisering i nordområdene.
Assessing Alternative Alignments: China’s Reception of the Quad, Aukus and IPEF
Under President Xi Jinping, China has developed its own vision of political and strategic order on a global scale, with the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) being a major part of it. Anchoring itself in over 150 countries and organizations, the colossal undertaking instigated a new literature on how it should be understood in the context of inter-state dynamics, world order and power distribution. The BRI also precipitated a number of alternative alignments from major Western economies such as the US, Japan and the EU that involve both infrastructure-specific initiatives and broader foreign and security policy objectives in the Indo-Pacific region. Over a decade since the BRI’s inception, the menu of these alternatives has become significantly longer, yet we still know little about how their standalone policies compare and how they are perceived and received by Beijing. This chapter considers three of the major alternative alignments to counter Chinese influence, namely: (1) the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), (2) AUKUS, and (3) Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF). It directs analysis to the alternatives’ major attributes and evolutions before comparing and contrasting China’s reception of them. Analysis is based on a review of government statements, academic literature, policy documents and media articles.
Implementing Economic Security in Norway: Lessons from Japan
While few OECD countries have experiences in making a shift to economic security and operationalizing the term, Japan is an outlier. Japan was the first country to implement legislation on economic security with the Economic Security Protection Act (ESPA), in 2022. As a first mover, Japan stands out as one of the few cases to draw on in developing lessons learned and identifying the challenges in putting economic security into practice. In this report, we consider how economic security has been implemented in Japan, the development of a holistic whole-of-government approach, and the importance of developing a uniform conceptualization of economic security adopted coherently across public and private organizations. Subsequently, we briefly examine the perspectives of the Nordic states and their respective evolving approaches to economic security. Finally, we outline some lessons learned and key experiences and discuss their relevance for the Norwegian context.
Utenrikspolitikkens mål er å gjøre innenrikspolitikken mulig
This policy brief is in Norwegian only.