Publications
The Geography of a U.S.-China War
Øystein Tunsjø (IFS) and Henrik Stålhane Hiim (IFS) believe that the trend of comparing the current US-China relationship with the Cold War is misleading because the geography is different. The rivalry between the US and China is located in maritime East Asia, especially Taiwan, and in a maritime area of operations it is easier to keep a war limited than in a land conflict, which paradoxically lowers the threshold for going to war. At the same time, the threshold for limited use of nuclear weapons is also lower in a maritime scenario.
The Chinese are Coming! US Think Thanks and the Belt and Road Initative in the Middle East and North Africa
Neil Ketchley (University of Oxford), Moren S. Andersen (NUPI) and Ole Jacob Sending (NUPI) shed light on the consequences of American think tanks portraying China's Belt and Road Initiative as a significant threat to American interests in the Middle East and North Africa, even though Chinese projects there are still relatively small. This perceived threat is used to strengthen and justify existing American foreign policy goals, even in regions where Chinese influence is still limited.
The Golden Age of Multilateralism Is Over
Foreign Policy Magazine: Jo Inge Bekkevold (IFS) focuses on the multilateral system that emerged after World War II unravelling before our eyes. He argues that there is a need for a serious debate about why the system is unravelling, whether it can be saved and what might potentially save it.
Trump 2.0 og internasjonal politikk
I denne spesialrapporten har Senter for geopolitikk samlet en rekke bidrag fra forskere tilknyttet senteret, fra Fridtjof Nansen Institutt, Institutt for Forsvarsstudier, Universitetet i Oslo, UiT – Norges Arktiske Universitet og Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt. Bidragene setter søkelys på noen konkrete temaer som inntak til å forstå et USA i endring og hva det vil kunne bety for andre stater, og for utviklingen på konkrete politikkfelt. Rapporten har særlig fokus på hva disse endringene, hver for seg og samlet, betyr for Europa og Norge. En oppdatert versjon ble publisert 12.06.25, klokken 12.40.
Trump, debt and the risk of an own goal
The bond market can bring down governments and force shifts in economic policy, even in great powers, writes Ole Jacob Sending in this op-ed. « I wish I could come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.» This is how James Carville, advisor to Bill Clinton, described the power wielded by the bond market. In 2025, Carville’s quote has regained relevance. The United States’ position as an economic hegemon is under pressure, not least due to a combination of high debt levels and the Trump administration’s irresponsible economic policies. The bond market may be the clearest example of how political power is grounded in economic power – particularly in a globalized world. The effects of this market are felt across all economies, including those of the great powers.
The Cost of Ignoring Geopolitics
Like Napoleon and the Ming dynasty, Europe is paying the price for strategic blindness. Europe finds itself in the greatest peril since the 1940s. As Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, the Trump administration’s policy shifts mean that Europe suddenly faces the possibility of war with Russia without the United States’ full backing. Washington is now negotiating a possible peace directly with Moscow and Kyiv, without the participation of other Europeans. It also seems willing to reach a deal largely on Russia’s terms. In this article, Jo Inge Bekkevold examines current geopolitical developments in Europe through a historical lens, highlighting both parallels and key differences with the past.
Europe’s New Role in U.S. Strategy
The future of U.S.-European relations is emerging as one of the most significant factors that will shape the global system. NATO’s celebration of its 75th anniversary at the bloc’s summit in Washington next week will be overshadowed not only by Russia’s war on Ukraine but by uncertainty over the future of the alliance itself—not least because of the possibility that NATO-bashing former U.S. President Donald Trump could return to power next year. The U.S.-European relationship will have several practical benefits for Washington’s rivalry with Beijing. In this op-ed, Jon Inge Bekkevold considers Europe's new role in U.S. strategy, the transatlantic relationship and U.S.-Chinese rivalry.
Critical Raw Materials: Interests of China and the European Union in the Arctic
In this Essay, we examine a potential avenue of future contestation in the Arctic – namely, the development of critical raw materials (CRMs) – with a particular focus on two actors with a growing interest in exploiting those materials in the Arctic region: China and the European Union (EU). CRMs increasingly play an essential role in the geopolitics of the global energy transition. In comes the Arctic region – a broad geographic area encompassing eight States that is rich in critical minerals, such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and REEs. However, mining in the Arctic poses significant risks, particularly to the region’s fragile ecosystem, and would require significant investments, often also involving public-private partnerships. And yet, as demand for critical minerals grows, the Arctic’s role in the global supply chain will likely become more prominent, particularly from a Chinese and EU perspective. The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a watershed in relations between the West and the Russian Federation, including in the Arctic region. Once hailed as an exceptional space of regional governance, cooperation and peaceful co-existence between the Arctic States, that notion lost meaning over the past two – almost three – years.
The Identity Factor in Chinese Relations with Europe: China and the Barbarian Civilization
This book offers a sustained, historically grounded analysis of the identity factor in China-Europe relations. The identity of the modern Chinese state was forged in the context of European emissaries, gunboats, and books. The effects still shape China’s policies towards Europe today, as it becomes a focal point in the great power competition between the US and China. The author argues that identity dilemmas are central to Chinese Europe policies, both past and present. This is reflected in the two-pronged composition of the book; one historical section, combined and complemented with one contemporary section. Case studies of three key political flashpoints between the EU, individual European countries, and China over the last two decades, demonstrates the contemporary relevance of a set of identity issues whose deep roots are uncovered through analysing Chinese political texts from the preceding two centuries. Aimed primarily at scholars and students of Chinese and European international relations, this book will also be of interest to scholars of ontological security theory, constructivism, and other identity-driven approaches to international politics.
Store utfordringer, små steg: Europas vanskelige geoøkonomiske posisjon overfor Kina
Europeiske økonomiske og politiske strukturer innebærer et spesielt vanskelig utgangspunkt i en tidsalder hvor geopolitikk, og ønsket om å begrense økonomisk sårbarhet overfor Kina, i økende grad styrer handel og investeringer. Russlands fullskalainvasjon av Ukraina har tydeliggjort risikoen ved å være for økonomisk eksponert mot autoritære regimer, og bidratt til et signifikant skifte i europeisk Kina-politikk. Men ringvirkningene av invasjonen har samtidig gjort det vanskeligere å endre det økonomiske forholdet til Kina. Mens USA og Japan over de siste årene har lykkes i å redusere sin direkte økonomiske eksponering mot Kina, har dermed Europa innen en rekke nøkkelområder gått i motsatt retning. Dette geoøkonomiske problemkomplekset former Europas mulighetsrom overfor Beijing, og har også potensiale til å skape transatlantiske spenninger. En rekke viktige initiativ har nylig blitt igangsatt på EU-nivå for å bøte på situasjonen, men gitt det vanskelige utgangspunktet, er utfordringene store.