Publications
Keep All the Flawed Options on the Table: Europe’s Nuclear Future
In light of Trump's policies, Europe must reassess its defense capabilities. Henrik Stålhane Hiim (IFS) argues that Europe's best strategy is to combine continued American protection with strengthened European deterrence; this includes British-French nuclear cooperation, the build-up of conventional forces, and potentially nuclear latent capabilities in selected countries.
Nordic Perspectives on Arctic Security
Andreas Østhagen (FNI) and Andreas Raspotnik (FNI) have written a chapter on the Norwegian perspectives on security in the Arctic in The Arctic at a Crossroads: The Making of a New Frontier. The chapter sheds light on how the Arctic region has over recent decades attracted global interest due to its climatic, economic and political changes.
Alaska, not Greenland, should worry the United States in the Arctic
The Arctic Institute: Erdem Lamazhapov (FNI) and Andreas Østhagen (FNI) argue that the US is letting itself be distracted by Greenland. While China is planning to begin construction of yet another icebreaker this year and is conducting joint military exercises with Russia in the Arctic, the US Coast Guard has delayed the development of several icebreakers until around 2030, and chosen to focus on Greenland. The FNI researchers emphasise that China's emerging maritime power has changed the strategic significance of the North Pacific.
Reacting to a Geopolitical Setback: NATO expansion in Sweden and Finland through the lens of Russian Geopolitical Culture
Matthew Blackburn (NUPI) analyses Russian geopolitical culture, and points out that the discourse surrounding the NATO enlargements in the north (Sweden and Finland) has been characterised by realism and pragmatism, not only by threat deterrence and securitisation as it is often portrayed.
Reacting to a geopolitical setback: NATO expansion in Sweden and Finland through the lens of Russian geopolitical culture
The accession of Sweden and Finland to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is typically seen as a serious geopolitical setback for Russia, the opposite of its goals to limit the alliance’s spread eastwards. In contrast to Moscow’s stances on Ukraine and Georgia, however, its reaction to NATO’s Nordic expansion is more ambiguous. This article uses the framework of critical geopolitics to analyse several layers of Russia’s discursive reaction: practical, formal, and popular. This study finds that much of the popular geopolitics continues pre-2022 trends, presenting a securitised and nationalistic construction of NATO as a threatening ‘Other’. On the other hand, more moderate and pragmatic assessments in formal geopolitics balance against bellicosity and highlight the agency of the Nordic states, suggesting Russia may return to peaceful cooperation. In practical geopolitics, there is a gap between discourse and practice. Alongside more negative official discourse on NATO Nordic expansion, there was also reduced Russian military activity and an avoidance of provocative steps. These two faces – realism and pragmatism as opposed to securitised and nationalistic threat deterrence – reflect the structure of Russian geopolitical culture when it is applied to the North and Nordic NATO expansion.
The Geography of a U.S.-China War
Øystein Tunsjø (IFS) and Henrik Stålhane Hiim (IFS) believe that the trend of comparing the current US-China relationship with the Cold War is misleading because the geography is different. The rivalry between the US and China is located in maritime East Asia, especially Taiwan, and in a maritime area of operations it is easier to keep a war limited than in a land conflict, which paradoxically lowers the threshold for going to war. At the same time, the threshold for limited use of nuclear weapons is also lower in a maritime scenario.
The Chinese are Coming! US Think Thanks and the Belt and Road Initative in the Middle East and North Africa
Neil Ketchley (University of Oxford), Moren S. Andersen (NUPI) and Ole Jacob Sending (NUPI) shed light on the consequences of American think tanks portraying China's Belt and Road Initiative as a significant threat to American interests in the Middle East and North Africa, even though Chinese projects there are still relatively small. This perceived threat is used to strengthen and justify existing American foreign policy goals, even in regions where Chinese influence is still limited.
The Golden Age of Multilateralism Is Over
Foreign Policy Magazine: Jo Inge Bekkevold (IFS) focuses on the multilateral system that emerged after World War II unravelling before our eyes. He argues that there is a need for a serious debate about why the system is unravelling, whether it can be saved and what might potentially save it.
Trump 2.0 og internasjonal politikk
I denne spesialrapporten har Senter for geopolitikk samlet en rekke bidrag fra forskere tilknyttet senteret, fra Fridtjof Nansen Institutt, Institutt for Forsvarsstudier, Universitetet i Oslo, UiT – Norges Arktiske Universitet og Norsk Utenrikspolitisk Institutt. Bidragene setter søkelys på noen konkrete temaer som inntak til å forstå et USA i endring og hva det vil kunne bety for andre stater, og for utviklingen på konkrete politikkfelt. Rapporten har særlig fokus på hva disse endringene, hver for seg og samlet, betyr for Europa og Norge. En oppdatert versjon ble publisert 12.06.25, klokken 12.40.
Trump, debt and the risk of an own goal
The bond market can bring down governments and force shifts in economic policy, even in great powers, writes Ole Jacob Sending in this op-ed. « I wish I could come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.» This is how James Carville, advisor to Bill Clinton, described the power wielded by the bond market. In 2025, Carville’s quote has regained relevance. The United States’ position as an economic hegemon is under pressure, not least due to a combination of high debt levels and the Trump administration’s irresponsible economic policies. The bond market may be the clearest example of how political power is grounded in economic power – particularly in a globalized world. The effects of this market are felt across all economies, including those of the great powers.